The third Bitcoin Halving is approaching fast now and we are already seeing a positive price action in the run-up to the event. Bitcoin is up 100% in the past month and that’s in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic shutdown of global economies.
In the middle of March we saw the biggest crash of the crypto market in years when Bitcoin and all major cryptocurrencies dropped by 58% in a matter of just three days. This followed a previous drop of 20% in late February and resulted in some $150 billion being wiped out of the total crypto marketcap. Since then we have been in a recovery phase and despite the overall fear of a coming recession, so far we’re seeing impressive gains in the total crypto market.
Of course, we ought to remember that markets don’t rise for too long and there will be another correction coming very soon, possibly just at the time of the halving, at least if we go by the data from the previous halvings but that isn’t something that worries me much.
As you know, I am a long-term hodler and for me the short-term price action is of little concern. I do use opportunities like that to do some swing trading and even day trading from time to time, but I tend to look ahead and evaluate my investment strategies in the long term when it comes to Bitcoin.
What happens in the next few weeks or even months after this halving is not going to change my bullish outlook on Bitcoin and I will tell you why:
Currently 144 blocks are mined on average per day on the Bitcoin network. There are 12.5 bitcoins per block which means that 1,800 is the average amount of new bitcoins mined per day. This amounts to roughly 54,000 new coins per month (30 days actually).
From 11th May, when this third halving event will take place, the block reward is cut in half and we will start mining 27,000 less Bitcoin per month.
That mean each month, miners who are selling their coins in order to cover their expenses and earn income, will be dumping about 27000 less coins on the market. Even if the demand for Bitcoin was stagnant, this means that the price would have to increase at least slightly. However, statistics show that people are interested in Bitcoin again, institutional investors are accumulating, the number of Bitcoin wallets is at an all time high, the amount of wallets owning more than 1 bitcoin has also jumped significantly since the last price drop and all of these factors point to increased interest in Bitcoin which will only go up once the price starts rising even more. As we know, most of the inexperienced traders or investors are joining the party only once they see big moves and I have so many experiences where people were asking me about buying Bitcoin just as it was going through the highs of 15k and 19k and pretty much the worst time to be buying.
So, all in all, my point is: whatever happens with the price now after the halving occurs, I will be ready to accumulate more. If the price dips by 20-30% I will be even happier.