The third Bitcoin Halving just wrapped up and it was as memorable and eventful as one could expect. There was a lot of volatility on the markets, way more than I remember from the last halving event and the Twitterverse exploded.
What was strange this time around, is that the market was really indecisive what the price should be. The bulls were putting a great fight, but the bears were overpowering, crashing every attempt at crossing the 9k range. We went from $8600 to $9100 briefly but then dropped to $8300 again and continued the battle in this range.
At the time of the actual halving, the price was sitting in the $8500 range but soon after the first block was mined, we jumped to $8700 where we currently stand as I am writing this memo.
So now what?
We are currently mining 6.25 BTC per new block and will continue to do so until 2024 when all of us will be 4 years older. Everyone is now wondering if the price will go up or will it dump hard.
If we compare this current market to the previous 2 halvings, we will find a lot of similarities. We are coming out of a long, 2 year bear market which is really similar to what happened prior to the last 2 halvings. On both occasions we had been on a downtrend from a previous ATH (all time high) and soon after the halving, we had explosive, exponential price jumps. I charted it here for you to see and tell me if you don’t think these look very similar. As you will notice, we are now in the last leg of that recovery phase from the corrective move after we had the 2017 ATH and I think we are about to start the next super-bull run soon. If I am correct, we will print a new ATH sometime in 2023. We will definitely attempt a retest of the current ATH this year but it is not very likely that we will succeed at it because there will be a lot of sellers who will be eager to take profits once we go above the 15k levels.
That is what I expect in the long term.
As for the coming weeks and months (short term scenario) – I feel that after the pressure to get to the 10k in the run-up to this halving, we are now due a healthy correction which may take us below the 7k range. Many people would disagree with me as I see a lot of my fellow traders and friends calling for 13k Bitcoin very soon, but I hold my stance that we will see 7k before we go up and retest the 13k resistance. We might even struggle with the 10k resistance which is where we got rejected a couple of days ago and we have been correcting since. Don’t be afraid though, this is the time to accumulate and this correction is really ideal for those who missed the last dip. I for one am certainly buying these dips and will continue to do so.
Stay profitable and leave a comment if you enjoyed this analysis.
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